U.S. Treasury yields eased on Friday, a day after the 10-year note briefly touched its highest level since January 2025. The prior spike followed a climb in oil prices that revived inflation fears, set against a widening Middle East conflict. Fresh labor data and an activity survey now frame the rates outlook.
Treasury yields pulled back on Friday after the 10-year benchmark briefly touched its highest level since January 2025. The 10-year note — the reference rate for mortgages, auto loans and credit-card debt — was last down more than one basis point at 4.685%. It had climbed above 4.7% on Thursday, the highest since Jan. 15, 2025, before President Donald Trump's second term began.
Shorter maturities followed the move
Shorter-dated debt eased in step, with the 2-year note yield — which more closely tracks short-term Federal Reserve rate policy — down more than two basis points at 4.333%. The longer-dated 30-year bond yield slipped less than a basis point to 5.163%. One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields move inversely to prices.
Oil's climb behind the spike
Thursday's move followed a climb in oil prices. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel, reigniting inflation fears.
Middle East conflict widens
Away from the rates market, geopolitical risk stayed elevated. President Trump said he would soon decide whether to launch a strike on Iran after the conflict reached a new front in the Red Sea.
He told Axios the proposed strikes would be bigger than anything seen in the war so far: "I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before." The president also said Iran had not yet received enough pain. U.S. forces have struck Iranian targets over the past two weeks, with Central Command completing a 13th consecutive night of strikes overnight.
Labor data and activity survey ahead
Economic releases added to the backdrop. Jobless claims for the week ended July 18 came in at 187,000, below the 212,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had expected. Investors next turn to the S&P Global Flash U.S. purchasing managers index due Friday, which measures the health of the American manufacturing and services sectors.
Source: CNBC
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
