Truist raised its rating on gold to neutral from less attractive, pointing to stabilizing real Treasury yields, continued central bank buying and a weaker U.S. dollar. The upgrade comes as gold trades well below its recent highs, even as some strategists see the metal climbing further out on stagflation risk.
Truist upgraded its rating on gold to neutral from less attractive on Thursday, citing stabilizing real interest rates, ongoing central bank purchases and a softer dollar. Analysts led by Keith Lerner said the shift reflects a more balanced set of conditions for the metal.
Real yields stop climbing
Real Treasury yields have stopped rising in recent weeks, removing a headwind that had weighed on gold. The Truist analysts noted yields are likely to face further downward pressure after the U.S. Treasury doubled buyback sizes for long-duration debt. Gold has also moved above its 200-day moving average, a sign that downside momentum has eased.
Central banks keep buying, dollar keeps sliding
Central banks continue to add to their gold holdings, an important source of support for bullion even as some worry purchases could slow. The dollar has declined from recent highs amid cooling inflation, weaker payroll growth and a dovish Federal Reserve pause — a backdrop that has historically supported gold prices. Gold remains about 15% below its recent highs, even after the improved technical picture.
Longer-term targets stay in play
Strategist Kristina Hooper expects gold could surpass $5,000 an ounce by 2027, pointing to stagflation risk as a factor that could boost demand for the metal as a hedge. Prediction markets show more caution over a shorter horizon: a move to $6,000 by the end of this year is priced at 11% YES, while $15,000 by December 2026 sits at just 2% YES. Federal Reserve rate decisions and central bank buying remain the key variables both sides of the debate are watching.
Sources: Investing.com, Crypto Briefing
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