President Trump says a deal has been reached on the Strait of Hormuz and that denuclearization talks with Iran begin tomorrow afternoon, though neither Tehran nor any other party has confirmed the claim. The statement follows an earlier Trump assertion that Iran flatly denied, and prediction markets have already shifted sharply toward pricing an end to the standoff.
President Trump said a deal has been reached on the Strait of Hormuz, with denuclearization talks between the US and Iran set to begin tomorrow (Monday) afternoon. Neither Iran nor any other party has independently confirmed the Hormuz claim.
A pattern of disputed claims
Trump made a similar claim previously — that Iran and other Middle Eastern nations had asked him to hold off on strikes pending a deal — which Iran's semi-official Mehr news agency dismissed as "nothing but a new lie." That history is why the latest Hormuz claim still needs corroboration.
Separately, Trump claimed Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Iran had urged him to halt military strikes altogether. He also framed the Hormuz agreement as an initial step toward a wider settlement on Iran's nuclear program but gave no further detail on the terms. No confirmation has come from Iranian officials.
Prediction markets shift toward de-escalation
Trading tied to Middle East geopolitical risk has moved fast on the news. The odds of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026 have risen from 30% to 59% in the past 24 hours. The same prediction markets suggest an increased likelihood of a US-Iran meeting in the UAE by the end of September.
Sources: Investinglive, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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