President Trump has pressured ExxonMobil and Chevron over their profits, a move that helped collapse gasoline and diesel crack spreads. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to Iran could arrive within a day, while Aramco's CEO warned that global oil inventories still need up to 18 months to recover even after that happens.
President Trump has become the dominant force behind oil and refined-product prices, a role once held by OPEC. His public pressure on the industry's largest players is already moving markets, even as officials edge toward a deal that could reopen a critical Iranian shipping chokepoint.
Crack spreads collapse after pressure on Exxon and Chevron
Gasoline and diesel crack spreads collapsed after Trump publicly called out ExxonMobil and Chevron, saying they were making too much money and should return some of those profits to the public. Trump said one company made 12 times what it made the year before and should return some of that to the public, telling reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that the companies had better cut consumer prices.
Trump also holds the ability to call off attacks on Iranian infrastructure. Bessent said the U.S. may have an Iran deal to open the Strait of Hormuz as early as tomorrow, a signal to hedge funds not to pile further onto the long side. A Qatari official said Bessent discussed a potential short-term U.S.-Iran agreement that could reopen the strait, though Qatar's foreign ministry spokeswoman said talks remain focused on de-escalation and that no direct talks are taking place.
Aramco warns rebuilding supply will take time
Yet the oil industry still needs strong profits to rebuild inventories and add refining capacity. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the world has lost more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil supply destined for critical industries. Inventory draws, strategic reserve releases and Aramco's own infrastructure have cut the net impact to around 1.8 billion barrels, and Nasser said: "The global refining system is operating near maximum utilization, leaving little buffer against major disruptions."
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened today, Nasser said replenishing depleted inventories could take up to 18 months at an average rate of 2.1 million barrels a day. Aramco's own second-quarter adjusted net income jumped 33% as the company benefited from the war-driven surge in crude oil prices while keeping exports flowing through pipelines that bypass the strait.
Source: Commodities Analysis & Opinion
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