The S&P 500 gained roughly 13% to 16% in the first year of Trump's second term, well behind the 24.1% surge seen over the same stretch in 2017. It marks the weakest first-year performance for any new presidential term since George W. Bush's second term in 2005, with fewer record highs and substantial policy-driven swings along the way.
President Trump has long treated the stock market as a personal scorecard, and by that measure his second term is trailing his first. The S&P 500 gained roughly 13% to 16% between January 20, 2025, and January 20, 2026, compared with a 24.1% surge over the same window in 2017. It is the weakest first-year performance for any new presidential term since George W. Bush's second term in 2005.
Fewer records, more turbulence
The index notched 39 record highs during the first year of the second term, against 62 in 2017 — nearly 40% fewer. Context matters, though: the second term began after two consecutive years of 20%-plus annual S&P 500 gains, so big percentage jumps from an already elevated base are harder to come by.
According to data from Fundstrat, both the best and worst single-day market moves of the period were closely tied to Trump administration policies. April 2025 tariff adjustments in particular drove substantial one-day swings in both directions, and a summer 2025 stimulus bill offered only a brief tailwind that failed to close the gap with the first-term trajectory.
Global markets pull ahead
Global equities outside the US outpaced the S&P 500 during the period, according to MSCI data — a reversal from the "American exceptionalism" trade that dominated markets for much of the prior decade. Trump has said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach 100,000 by the end of his term, a level that would require the index to roughly double from its early-2025 levels.
Trump treats the index as a proxy for the economy, though many economists disagree, pointing instead to GDP growth, employment figures and wage data as more complete measures. Some strategists have pointed to defense and banking as sectors that have historically shown resilience during periods of geopolitical tension and trade uncertainty.
As of mid-2026, the market keeps posting gains but with a volatility profile that keeps risk managers busy.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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