U.S. refiner stocks are far outrunning the oil majors in 2026 as a global shortage of refined fuel, not crude, tightens margins. Valero, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66 have each more than doubled this year, while a widening gap between near-term and later oil prices signals gas prices at the pump could keep climbing.
Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Marathon Petroleum shares have more than doubled so far in 2026. ExxonMobil and Chevron are each up about 40% this year, well behind the refiners. The gap comes down to where the shortage actually sits: it's the fuel market, not the crude oil market, that's running short.
A supply shock, not a demand shock
More than 7 million barrels per day of refined product flows from the Middle East and Russia are offline. Global refinery throughput climbed to a summer peak of 81.4 million bpd in August, but that was still 4.2 million bpd below last year's level. Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier summed up the imbalance: "it's more of a supply shock than a demand shock". Analysts at RBN Energy pointed to the same distillate crunch, noting U.S. distillate stocks in August were the lowest for the month since 1951.
Average analyst ratings on Valero, Marathon, and Phillips 66 currently sit at "moderate buy," yet 12-month price targets are trailing the current share prices for all three stocks. MarketBeat's Chris Markoch argues that gap suggests the equity market is pricing in continued strength amid the fuel squeeze faster than Wall Street models.
Oil's forward curve flags more pain at the pump
The crude market itself is flashing the same warning. Brent crude for November delivery traded as high as $109.80 a barrel Monday before easing to about $105.30. The December contract sat at $100.54, a gap that marked its widest level since July 23.
WTI crude for October delivery showed the same pattern, hovering above $103 a barrel and about $4.79 more than the following month's contract, also its widest gap in nearly two months. Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said the widening spread shows that buyers are paying increasingly more for barrels they can get their hands on now, according to MarketWatch.
U.S. drivers are already averaging $4.32 a gallon at the pump, still below the record of nearly $5.02 a gallon set in June 2022. But with refining capacity slow to return and product inventories thin, the fuel squeeze that's lifting refiner stocks looks unlikely to ease soon.
Sources: Oilprice.com, MarketWatch.com
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