The UAE's crude oil exports have recovered to within 0.02% of pre-war volumes, while Iranian shipments have collapsed by as much as 100% under a US naval blockade. Gulf exports overall have stabilized at roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, and oil prices have settled near $70 a barrel following a June peace deal.
UAE exports bounce back near pre-war highs
Tanker tracking data from TankerTrackers.com shows the UAE's crude exports had recovered to within 0.02% of their pre-war volumes by early September 2026. Iran's exports, meanwhile, have all but disappeared, dropping as much as 100% from pre-conflict levels.
The reversal follows a punishing stretch for both exporters. When conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel erupted in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz — the waterway carrying roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply — turned into a chokepoint in the most literal sense. UAE crude exports cratered to between 1.9 and 2.13 million barrels per day in March 2026.
But the UAE had a way around the strait. From June through September 2026, its exports ranged between 3.7 and 4.3 million bpd, nearly matching pre-war output. The 380-kilometer Habshan-Fujairah pipeline connects Abu Dhabi's inland oil fields directly to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing the strait entirely, and the Mandous underground storage facility holds roughly 42 million barrels, adding a further cushion.
Iran's exports have nowhere to go
Iran had no equivalent escape route. A US naval blockade, first imposed in April 2026 and reinstated in July 2026, sealed off Iranian tanker traffic through the strait. By August 2026, Iranian crude exports had fallen to between 220,000 and 260,000 bpd, down from a pre-war range of 1.7 to 2 million bpd. Iran's major export terminals at Kharg Island and Bandar Abbas both require passage through or near the strait, leaving the country reliant on minimal floating storage and domestic distribution once the blockade took hold.
Prices settle near pre-war levels
Gulf region exports as a whole have stabilized at roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels, and oil prices have settled near $70 per barrel following a peace deal reached in mid-June 2026, close to where they stood before the conflict began.
The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, completed in 2012, was built as a hedge against exactly this kind of disruption to crude oil flows, while Iran's Kharg Island and Bandar Abbas terminals had no alternative route once the blockade took hold.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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