A sharper-than-expected US crude inventory draw lifted oil this week, even as OPEC+ confirmed another August production increase. WTI trades near $77.98, holding above trendline support but short of the level that would revive its recent rally.
US crude stocks fell more than traders expected, tightening the near-term supply picture and pulling oil off its recent lows. The Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories dropped 1.7 million barrels in the week to July 10 to 409.7 million barrels, against an anticipated decline of 0.9 million barrels.
The draw came alongside strong seasonal demand. Refinery activity rose to 96.2% while US crude output held at 13.9 million barrels per day. Gasoline inventories fell 1.5 million barrels, though distillate stocks rose 4.6 million barrels over the same week.
OPEC+ adds barrels for August
Supply is set to grow on the other side of the ledger. OPEC+ confirmed it will proceed with an extra increase of 188,000 bpd in August, while reiterating that it will keep watch on oil demand and market conditions given continued geopolitical instability.
Grades tied to the physical market moved higher regardless. Azerbaijan’s Azeri Light crude rose $1.99, or 2.29%, to $88.82 per barrel, and September Brent futures settled at $82.88 after the latest session.
Where WTI sits now
WTI crude trades near $77.98, holding above its ascending trendline after slipping back from recent highs around $80.17. It remains above the 50-day exponential moving average at $76.33, so the recovery is still intact.
Momentum, however, has cooled. Consecutive bearish candles have returned sellers to control, and the RSI has eased to around 50, a more balanced reading. A recovery above $80.17 is needed to open the path toward $83.37, while a break below support at $77.05 could expose $73.15.
Natural gas, by contrast, stayed range-bound. Prices traded near $2.86 between $2.85 support and $2.94 resistance after the EIA reported a 41 Bcf storage injection that matched expectations, keeping the oil market focus on crude.
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