US initial jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 in the week ended November 7, above economists' forecasts. Continuing claims fell, and the report shows little sign that labor market conditions are deteriorating.
New claims for unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000 for the week ended November 7, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 195,000 claims.
Claims stay near multi-decade lows
Claims have stayed at or below 200,000 since mid-September and remain close to the 189,000 level touched in mid-July, the lowest since 1969. The government last week reported a surge in nonfarm payrolls in October and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.
With wages growing at a moderate pace, some economists do not believe the labor market is retightening. Others argue that a smaller workforce, driven by retirements and the Trump administration's immigration crackdown, is the key driver of the historically low level of claims.
Citigroup economist Veronica Clark said that a smaller labor force could mean fewer workers filing for unemployment insurance. She added that continuing claims suggest the unemployment rate may even fall further towards around 4.0% in data by early 2027.
Continuing claims fall to 1.697 million
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, fell 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.697 million in the week ended October 31. However, these figures leave out some unemployed people, including recent college graduates and others with little or no work history.
ActionForex put the four-week moving average of initial claims at 195,250, unchanged from the prior week, and noted that claims sat below the 228K recorded in the comparable week a year earlier. Its analysis said the figures give little reason to reassess expectations for a December Fed rate hike.
Sources: Reuters via Investing.com, ActionForex
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