US employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, the lowest total for the month since 2022, even as planned hiring fell to its weakest September since 2011. The mixed signals leave Friday's non-farm payrolls report as the key test for where US labor demand really stands.
Layoffs fall, but hiring plans shrink too
US-based employers announced 43,281 job cuts in September, down 18% from August and 20% from a year earlier. That is the lowest total for the month since 2022, when 29,989 job cuts were recorded. Tech kept leading the cuts, posting 10,799 layoffs in September, up 77% from August.
Through the first nine months of 2026, total announced layoffs are down 39% compared with the same period last year. But hiring tells a less reassuring story: employers announced plans to hire 90,787 workers in September, down 23% from a year ago and marking the weakest September total since 2011. Challenger also noted that the usual early surge in holiday-season hiring has been notably absent this time around.
NFP in focus after mixed ADP signal
That puts more weight on Friday's non-farm payrolls report. Analyst estimates show payrolls expected to rise by around 90,000 in September, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. That follows yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by 90,000, above the 70,000 expected.
Neither the ADP nor the Challenger reports are a direct proxy for the NFP reading. But together, they suggest employers are cautious rather than aggressively pulling back.
Bond market pressure raises the stakes
Surging bond yields are already keeping broader markets on edge, so Friday's reaction to the jobs report could bite hard. 10-year Treasury yields are threatening a firm break above 5.30% today, as inflation, energy prices and fiscal concerns keep the bond vigilantes in control.
A strong NFP print could give bond sellers another reason to push yields higher and keep pressure on equities. A soft number may offer Treasuries some relief, but with the long end facing pressures well beyond the labor market, it may take a genuinely weak report to shift the tone in the bond market — and in turn, broader markets too.
Source: Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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