The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts marketed natural gas production will average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day in 2026, above the previous record of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025. Most of the growth comes from the Permian and Haynesville regions, tied respectively to rising crude oil prices and the Henry Hub gas benchmark.
The EIA's August 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook shows marketed natural gas production averaging 121.3 Bcf/d in the first half of 2026. That is 4% (4.6 Bcf/d) more than the same period in 2025. Most of that expansion is concentrated in the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico and the Haynesville region in Louisiana and Texas.
Permian output tracks crude oil prices
The agency forecasts Permian gas production will average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, 6% more than in 2025. In the Permian, gas comes mainly from associated gas produced during crude oil extraction, so output tracks crude prices rather than gas prices.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices rose from an average of $65 a barrel in 2025 to an average of $84 a barrel through July 2026, above the region's breakeven price. Oil executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy survey reported 2026 breakeven prices of $69 a barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 a barrel in the Delaware Basin.
The higher prices support oil-directed drilling and the resulting rise in both crude oil and natural gas output. A steadily increasing gas-to-oil ratio in the Permian also adds to gas growth: as more oil and gas come out of a reservoir, pressure declines, and natural gas flows more easily than oil at lower pressures.
Haynesville growth follows the Henry Hub price
In the Haynesville, natural gas production increased 1.1 Bcf/d, or 7%, in the first half of 2026 versus the first half of 2025. The EIA forecasts Haynesville production will rise 9% (1.3 Bcf/d) for the full year. Haynesville wells run 10,500 feet to 13,500 feet deep, among the deepest in the U.S. Lower 48 states, so development costs run higher than in the Permian.
Unlike Permian operators, who drill mostly for oil, Haynesville operators drill mainly for natural gas, and their output tracks the Henry Hub benchmark price. The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will fall 2% (8 cents) to average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026.
At that price, drilling in the Haynesville remains economical despite the deeper wells and higher costs. The region's proximity to liquefied natural gas export terminals and major industrial gas consumers along the Gulf Coast keeps drawing operators there. The United States was the world's largest natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024, the most recent year with global data available.
Source: CleanTechnica
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