USD/CAD is pressing multi-month uptrend support as traders wait on U.S. inflation data and a Bank of Canada rate decision. FOREX.com strategist Michael Boutros flags 1.4084 as the line that keeps the rally intact and 1.4239 as the level needed to open the next leg higher.
USD/CAD is testing uptrend support at the lower parallel of the May slope, with the weekly opening range forming just above it. Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist at FOREX.com, wants a breakout of that range for direction before committing either way.
Where USD/CAD support sits
Initial support rests at the November high-day close of 1.4109, backed by the 23.6% retracement of the May advance at 1.4084. A drop below that threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and point to a larger trend reversal toward the 2022 high and 38.2% retracement at 1.3978/82.
On the upside, monthly open resistance stands at 1.4197, with key resistance holding at the March 2025 swing lows at 1.4235/39. A daily close above that pivot zone is needed to fuel the next major leg toward the 61.8% retracement of the 2025 decline at 1.4292.
For the bullish case to survive, Boutros says losses need to be limited to 1.4084, with a close above 1.4239 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally. Two events sit directly in the path: U.S. inflation data due the next day, then the Bank of Canada rate decision.
USD/CHF probes major resistance
The Swiss franc pair tells a mirror story. USD/CHF is testing major resistance at 8100/25, a zone defined by the November high-day close, the August high close, and the November swing high. That pivot has acted as an inflection point since last year, and a daily close above it is needed to open the next leg of the advance.
A topside break exposes the median-line near 8150, backed by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. To the downside, bullish invalidation sits at 7995-8009, the 38.2% retracement of the May advance and the April high-day close. A daily close below there would suggest a more significant high has formed.
Both pairs now hinge on the daily close through this week's data. Until USD/CAD clears 1.4239 or loses 1.4084, the opening-range breakout remains the trigger to watch.
Source: FOREX.com
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