WTI crude closed Friday near $82.49 a barrel after a roughly 16% weekly surge, one of its strongest runs of 2026, as the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire revived Middle East supply fears. Brent settled above $88, a more-than-one-month high. Traders now watch the Strait of Hormuz, US military activity and Wednesday’s EIA inventory report.
West Texas Intermediate crude settled Friday near $82.49 per barrel, one of its strongest performances of 2026. The benchmark climbed around 16% over the week. Brent crude also finished above $88, its highest level in more than a month.
The rally reflected a return of geopolitical risk rather than stronger demand, after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran collapsed and sent traders scrambling to price potential disruptions across the Middle East.
Middle East risk flips the outlook
Just two weeks ago, WTI traded near $68.55 as investors expected recovering Middle Eastern production and additional OPEC+ supply to cap prices. That outlook changed fast.
The United States expanded military operations against Iran, while Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on regional infrastructure. Because roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, slowing tanker traffic pushed prices higher.
That geopolitical fear widened the risk premium embedded in crude. The International Energy Agency warned that prolonged shipping disruptions could threaten global energy security.
Inventories reinforce the bullish case
US data reinforced the move. The Energy Information Administration reported that commercial crude inventories declined by 1.7 million barrels. Refinery utilisation climbed to 96.2% during the peak summer driving season.
Cushing inventories stayed below 20 million barrels, leaving the WTI benchmark sensitive to further disruptions. The one soft spot was a 4.6 million-barrel increase in distillate inventories.
OPEC+ supply meets a shipping bottleneck
OPEC+ keeps restoring output, approving another 188,000 barrels per day increase for August. Extra barrels normally weigh on prices, but they matter only if producers can export them through Hormuz.
Meanwhile, OPEC cut its 2026 global oil-demand growth forecast for a third consecutive month, and the IEA cautioned that slowing activity could weigh on consumption if energy prices stay elevated. For now, crude is trading on supply fear rather than improving fundamentals.
Key levels to watch
WTI has recovered to around $81.80, reclaiming the $80.40-$81.80 support zone. The RSI has climbed near 57, showing firmer momentum.
A daily close above the $81.80-$83.50 resistance zone would expose $88.06 and then $93.67. Failure to break higher could trigger a pullback toward $78.42, with stronger support near the 100-day EMA at $77.25.
Source: FXLeaders
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