WTI crude is testing a bearish breakdown below $89.81, with a bear flag pattern now 80% complete and a close under $87.19 opening a path toward $84.50. Brent crude, meanwhile, is stuck inside its Ichimoku cloud near $101.20, even as Shell says record refining margins point to a tighter underlying market. The split between weak short-term technicals and a tightening physical market leaves oil near an inflection point.
WTI's bear flag nears completion
Crude Oil WTI is consolidating around $89.81 after dropping nearly $17 from its $106.75 high, trapped in a bear flag pattern. The setup is now 80% complete. A five-hour close below $87.19 could send the price toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $84.50, with $81.87 and $75.00 as further downside targets.
The MACD is turning bullish but still sits in negative territory, and RSI at 48.4 is bouncing without yet confirming a reversal. Support holds in the $87.00–$88.76 band, while resistance caps gains at $91.50–$93.32.
Brent stalls as Shell flags a tighter market
Brent crude is trading near $101.20, barely changed from its $101.56 close. Support at $97.00 and resistance at $102.55 bracket a tight Ichimoku cloud. An ADX reading of 12.68 points to a severely exhausted trend, a setup prone to fakeouts in either direction.
Yet the fundamentals beneath that chop look tighter than the chart suggests. Shell expects to report strong third-quarter oil-trading results. Refining margins reached $42 a barrel, exceeding the previous quarterly high in 2022. Brent crude averaged more than $90 a barrel during the quarter as the Iran war and attacks on Russian refineries tightened the global market. Shell's refineries ran just slightly less than in the prior quarter, when they operated flat-out, and the company reports full results on Oct. 29.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News, Commodities & Futures News, Rigzone.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
