6 min read Bitcoin has slipped back toward the low $62,000s, extending a pullback that has tracked a wider retreat from risk assets. The selling intensified this week as a tech-led sell-off that began in Asia spread to Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing sharply lower as memory chip shares tumbled. The move has the look of a crowded leadership group being stress-tested after an extended run, and crypto has not been spared.
This marks a clear reversal from the risk-on tone of mid-June, when a US-Iran peace deal and a record SpaceX listing lifted Bitcoin alongside equities. That optimism has faded, and the macro headwinds have stacked up.
The Fed is staying hawkish, and the dollar is strengthening
The dominant driver remains monetary policy. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% on 17 June, but the updated projections and Kevin Warsh’s first press conference were read as hawkish. Nine of 18 officials now pencil in at least one rate hike in 2026, while only one projects a cut.
That repricing continues to pressure risk assets. Markets are now pricing roughly two-in-three odds of a September rate hike, up sharply from the previous week, with some major banks revising their forecasts to include one. The US dollar index has pushed to a new 2026 high above 101, supported by the firmer rate outlook and a weak yen.
A stronger dollar and a higher-for-longer rate path tend to work against non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, particularly with the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.50%. This week’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred gauge, is the next catalyst to watch on the rate front.
Institutional demand has cooled
Underlying the price weakness has been a notable pullback in institutional appetite. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a record 13-day outflow streak into early June, shedding more than $4.3 billion before the run broke. Total Bitcoin held in the funds fell to around 1.277 million BTC, roughly 7% below the October peak.
While that streak has since ended, the episode underlined how quickly regulated capital can step back when the macro picture turns, and flows remain a key gauge to watch from here.
Bitcoin daily chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin is using the supply zone around 66K as resistance, with the support zone between 60K and 62K holding the downside. Price is potentially forming a lower-timeframe range between these two levels.
The RSI remains below the 50 level, pointing to weak momentum. The accumulation/distribution line is sloping lower alongside declining volume bars through the range, which suggests participation is thinning out around current levels.
The recent move higher, which was rejected at 66K, came on low volume and weak participation, so it appears relatively soft. If price breaks below the current support level, the next area to watch sits around 52K to 55K.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
The 4-hour chart shows the range more clearly, with the range equilibrium (EQ) marked by the resistance zone around 64K. A reclaim of this range EQ would be the first sign of a potential test back toward the 66K level above.
For now, the structure remains range-bound with overall declining volume. The RSI is relatively weak here too, and the accumulation/distribution line is showing no clear signs of accumulation, with the primary trend still pointing lower.
Given that downtrend, a move to the downside carries slightly higher odds than a move higher. That said, a reclaim of the 64K range EQ would raise the probability of an upside move.
Key takeaways
- A broad risk-off move, led by a tech and memory chip selloff, has weighed on Bitcoin
- A hawkish Fed, a stronger dollar, and rising September hike odds are the dominant macro headwinds
- Institutional demand cooled through a record ETF outflow streak into early June
- Key support sits between 60K and 62K; a break lower opens the 52K to 55K area
- On the upside, a reclaim of the 64K range EQ would raise the odds of a test toward 66K
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