4 min read Gold slipped back below $4,000 an ounce on Friday after a bounce earlier in the week ran out of steam. The Federal Reserve (Fed) held interest rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday, but two of the 12 voting officials wanted a hike. On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, showed prices up 3.6% in the year to September, from 3.4% in August, while the US economy grew at a faster than expected 3.4% annual pace in the third quarter. Strong growth and sticky inflation have markets leaning towards a rate hike in December, and higher rates tend to weigh on gold because it doesn’t pay any interest.
Daily chart: back at the bottom of the range
In our previous gold analysis, we flagged the 3,920 to 4,180 zone as key support and said a break below it could lead to a deeper correction. Today’s daily candle has broken below 4,000, and gold is now trading at levels not seen since July, very close to the bottom of that range.
- Bottom of the range: around 3,920, not far below where price is trading now.
- If the range breaks: the next major level below sits around 3,400, the area where gold traded sideways between April and August 2025.
Gold is pressing on the bottom of the range that has acted as support since late 2025. A break lower could bring the 2025 sideways area around 3,400 into view.
1 hour chart: will the level hold?
On the 1 hour chart, this week’s bounce ran into the 4,082 to 4,106 resistance area we highlighted last week, topping out around 4,083 before sellers took over. Gold is now trading around 3,984, testing the 3,982 to 3,995 area where buyers stepped in several times over the past week, after dipping to about 3,966 earlier today.
- Bearish scenario: a rejection from the 3,982 to 3,995 area could send gold back towards this morning’s low around 3,966. Failure to hold this level could mean more downside for gold.
- Bullish scenario: a reclaim of the 3,995 area, followed by a successful retest, could open the way for a move towards the 4,020 area during the day.
Gold is testing a support area just below 4,000 after the bounce stalled near 4,083. A reclaim could point to 4,020, while a rejection could bring more downside.
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