Charles Edwards argues Bitcoin's quantum-computing risk is more than priced in, and that a clear developer roadmap to fix it could be an upside catalyst. The Capriole Investments founder says such a plan could push the price up double digits very quickly, with Bitcoin already trading around 40% below what he calls fair value.
Bitcoin's biggest overhang — the risk that quantum computers could one day break its cryptography — may be an upside catalyst rather than a threat, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards. He argues that if Bitcoin's core developers publish a clear plan to make the network quantum-resistant, the price could climb by double digits very quickly.
Why a roadmap could move the price
Edwards told Cointelegraph that if the core team lays out a roadmap to solve the problem within two years, that would discount much of the risk almost overnight: "I think that would discount a lot of the risk pretty much overnight." He describes the quantum question as counterintuitively an upside catalyst, because it currently sits on the back burner.
The debate over quantum-proofing Bitcoin has split the community, with some arguing that major changes could conflict with Bitcoin's core ethos and others saying quantum computers are years away and a rushed fix could be worse than the disease. BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, recently flagged quantum computing as a potential long-term risk in materials for spot Bitcoin ETF investors.
The discount Edwards sees
Edwards estimates Bitcoin trades around 40% below its fair value based on energy value, with quantum risk accounting for roughly a 30% discount — which he says means the threat is more than priced in. At the time of publication Bitcoin was trading at $65,270, roughly 49% below its October all-time high of $126,100.
He frames that discount as reflecting the risk known today, rather than any unknown breakthrough that could accelerate the threat and push the price lower.
What "Q Day" means for the timeline
Edwards puts the arrival of "Q Day" — the point at which quantum computers could reverse engineer private keys from public keys — in a four to five year range, give or take. He also factors in the years a fix would take, noting BIP-360 author Ethan Heilman estimates the work could take years.
A growing number of observers worry the risk could become more serious if Bitcoin fails to make the necessary changes before 2030. Ethereum, meanwhile, is due to complete its post-quantum overhaul by 2029, a step set to shine a spotlight on Bitcoin's own preparations. With no solution yet on the table, Edwards says the balance looks skewed more toward the upside from here.
Source: Cointelegraph
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