A new study finds that AI's expansion of the fossil fuel sector could add up to 1.8 billion tons of carbon dioxide a year, more than the direct emissions from data centers themselves. Google, Microsoft and Amazon have each posted double-digit emissions increases as AI-driven data center growth outpaces their climate pledges.
Big Tech's carbon footprint is climbing again, driven almost entirely by the AI boom. Google and Microsoft's carbon emissions each jumped 25% year-over-year from 2025 to 2026. Amazon's rose 16% over the same period. Together the three companies emitted 19 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent last fiscal year, as much as a third of France.
Amazon backs a gas plant in Texas
Amazon is investing in a large-scale natural-gas power plant as part of a data center development in South Texas that would become the single biggest-emitting power plant in the country. If built to its current specifications, the facility would be permitted to release 33 million tons of carbon dioxide a year. Michael Thomas, founder of the Big Tech emissions tracker Cleanview, told the New York Times the project should not be viewed as a one-off, but rather that it could be a foreshadowing of what's to come.
A new paper measures AI's effect on fossil fuels
A study published in Nature's NPJ Climate Action finds that if fossil fuels gain any economic benefit from AI integration, the resulting emissions will exceed whatever emissions AI helps avoid elsewhere. In a scenario where the fossil fuel and renewables sectors benefit equally from AI, the paper estimates global carbon dioxide emissions would rise by between 0.47 billion and 1.8 billion tons a year. According to the Wall Street Journal: "On the smaller side it's about the emissions of Mexico annually," said Holly Alpine, one of the paper's co-authors.
The renewables sector would need efficiency gains four to five times greater than the fossil fuel sector just to achieve net emissions reductions. That bar looks out of reach in the current political climate, and the study's authors conclude AI is on track to extend fossil fuels' dominance of the global economy rather than shrink it.
Source: Oilprice.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
