Amazon stock has pulled back about 11% from its record close ahead of its third-quarter report on Oct. 29. The Motley Fool points to one number, AWS revenue growth, as the figure that could drive the next move.
Amazon's stock closed at an all-time high of $284.02 on Aug. 3, 2026. It now trades at about $254, a drop of about 11%, as investors wait for the company's third-quarter results on Oct. 29.
Retail generates most of Amazon's revenue, but most of its operating profits come from Amazon Web Services (AWS), the world's largest cloud infrastructure platform. That makes AWS growth the figure to watch.
AWS growth accelerates to an 18-quarter high
AWS revenue growth has climbed each quarter over the past year. It rose from 17.5% in Q2 2025 to 36.7% in Q2 2026, its strongest rate in 18 quarters. In between, it printed 20% in Q3 2025, 24% in Q4 2025 and 28% in Q1 2026.
The Motley Fool attributes the surge to the AI market's expansion. Analysts expect AWS revenue to grow 30%-35% year over year in the third quarter. Beating that range and accelerating for another quarter could lift the stock, but falling short could make it stumble.
Capex raises the stakes
Amazon is allocating most of its projected $220 billion in capex this year toward the expansion of AWS' AI infrastructure.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Amazon's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 25%, respectively. The stock still looks reasonably valued at 24 times next year's earnings, but it could command a higher valuation if the market revalues it as a high-growth AI infrastructure stock.
If AWS keeps its growth rates without significantly boosting capex, the Motley Fool says the stock could reach new highs in the near future.
Source: The Motley Fool
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