Amazon owns between 15% and 20% of Anthropic ahead of an IPO the AI developer plans for as early as October. At valuations implied by recent secondary-market trades, that stake is worth between $180 billion and $240 billion. Amazon booked $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains on the position in the first quarter of 2026 alone.
Amazon's equity share in Anthropic is worth between $180 billion and $240 billion at the valuation implied by recent secondary trades. Anthropic privately filed its Form S-1 on June 1 and plans to go public as early as October, in a listing that could put it north of $1 trillion.
The company has so far invested over $13 billion in Anthropic and is expected to be one of the largest beneficiaries of the offering rather than a passive holder. Amazon also said during Anthropic's most recent fundraising round that it would invest up to $20 billion more if specific commercial objectives were fulfilled.
The gains are already on the books
Amazon does not have to wait for the offering to record the value. It realized $16.8 billion in pre-tax gains on the Anthropic investment in the first quarter of 2026 alone, aided by a $12.3 billion mark-to-market revaluation after Anthropic's spring funding round.
That revaluation followed a May round that valued Anthropic at $965 billion, and secondary-market trades have since pushed its implied market capitalization to roughly $1.2 trillion.
KeyBanc lifts its Amazon target to $335
The arrangement also feeds AWS directly. A successful offering hands Anthropic billions in new capital, the majority of which is contractually allocated back into AWS for cloud infrastructure, custom Trainium AI silicon, and multi-gigawatt compute capacity.
This infrastructure pull-through prompted KeyBanc to retain an Overweight rating on July 16 and raise its price objective to $335 from $330. The firm forecasts a 31% year-over-year AWS revenue increase in both 2026 and 2027, and, citing increased cloud usage and improving retail operating margins, raised its operating income predictions by 4% for 2026 and 8% for 2027. It estimates long-term net sales of $1,079 billion and operating income of $178.6 billion in 2028.
Fund count fell as price targets rose
Institutional positioning, however, paints a more cautious narrative than the sell-side changes suggest. Insider Monkey's Q1 2026 database showed 353 elite funds held Amazon at the end of the quarter, down from 381 the previous quarter, even as analysts turned more optimistic on AWS growth and the value of the Anthropic stake.
The tension worth watching is concentration risk, which runs in both directions: Amazon's AWS growth numbers increasingly factor in ongoing heavy spending from a single AI client whose own path toward consistent profitability has yet to be proven at scale, while Anthropic's infrastructure roadmap relies extensively on one cloud provider's chips and capacity. A public listing significantly reduces that counterparty risk by giving Anthropic multi-year public market liquidity to fund $100 billion+ AWS infrastructure obligations.
Source: Insider Monkey
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