Analysts have raised their 2026 oil price forecasts as disruption to Gulf exports offsets worries about weaker demand growth. A Reuters poll of 30 economists now sees Brent crude averaging $89.05 a barrel next year and WTI $83.90, while Goldman Sachs says a large risk premium keeps physical prices well above futures even as Gulf shipments recover.
Analysts lift 2026 price forecasts
A September survey of 30 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $89.05 a barrel in 2026 and U.S. crude $83.90 a barrel. Forecasts for average Brent prices ranged from $77.27 to $97.60.
Several analysts said the market has grown convinced that a full restoration of exports through the Strait of Hormuz remains unlikely in the near term, leaving inventories to absorb much of the supply shortfall. HSBC's base case assumes only gradual improvements in shipping conditions and a "structurally impaired" Hormuz, with flows recovering slowly and staying far below the roughly 19-20 million barrels per day that passed through the strait before the conflict.
Exports have recovered, yet prices stay elevated
Even so, shipments have rebounded. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports, including "dark exports" from ships with transponders switched off, reached 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, in line with the 2025 average, after exports doubled in September. The recovery came despite an attack on the Saudi East-West pipeline that disrupted flows for nearly two weeks, and the continuing Houthi blockade of Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab strait.
Goldman analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said Saudi exports more than doubled in September to 11.6 million barrels a day, while the UAE also exported above its 2025 average. Satellite data reportedly showed no seaborne crude or main refined product exports from Iran during the month. Goldman estimates the global oil market was roughly balanced in September and expects Brent to moderate to $85 a barrel by year-end and $80 in 2027.
Yet physical prices such as dated Brent remain near $120 a barrel. Goldman said the gap likely reflects a large risk premium tied to downside risks to supply from escalation that could threaten long-term production, plus record low global stocks outside OECD commercial inventories that raise the urgency to rebuild them.
China's stockpile buffer starts to shrink
Chinese inventories are one of the biggest uncertainties for next year. Analysts said the world's largest crude importer has drawn on stockpiles built up before the conflict began, reducing its need to compete for cargoes, but that trend has begun to reverse as Chinese imports rose to nearly 9 million barrels per day in August, still below historical norms.
Most analysts continue to view supply risks rather than demand weakness as the primary driver of prices through 2026. Analysts at EIU said slower global growth and weaker manufacturing activity should still prevent prices from approaching the highs reached immediately after the conflict broke out. Most expect the market to move back into surplus during 2027 as shipping conditions improve, Gulf production gradually recovers, and non-OPEC supply continues to expand.
Sources: Investing.com, Investing.com
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