A federal appeals court upheld the Pentagon's decision to exclude Anthropic from its supply chain, rejecting the company's challenge in a 2-1 ruling on Sept. 25. The ruling lands ahead of Anthropic's reported November IPO, where investors have anticipated a valuation near $2 trillion. A separate court order still blocks broader Pentagon restrictions Anthropic says could cost it billions.
Appeals court sides with the Pentagon
A federal appeals court on Sept. 25 rejected Anthropic's challenge to the Pentagon's decision to remove Claude from its supply chain, in a 2-1 ruling that permits the department to exclude Anthropic from its systems and bar contractors from using its products for Pentagon work. Anthropic entered the dispute holding a two-year prototype agreement worth up to $200 million, awarded in July 2025 — a ceiling, not a confirmed paid amount.
The fight grew out of the Pentagon's demand that Claude stay available for all lawful uses. Anthropic refused to drop limits on lethal autonomous warfare and mass domestic surveillance, and the court accepted the Pentagon's concern that those limits could stop Claude from performing requested tasks.
Financial exposure stays contested
The $200 million ceiling is not the full financial picture. In a separate case, Anthropic estimated that reinstating broader government restrictions would cut its defense-contractor and other Pentagon-related revenue by 50% to 100%, trimming total 2026 revenue by multiple billions of dollars — an estimate, not a verified loss. A California judge blocked those broader measures in an Aug. 27 order, keeping that case separate from Friday's appeals ruling.
Neither case forces the Pentagon to use Claude, and neither establishes a government-wide ban.
IPO investors gain a new variable
Anthropic is reportedly aiming for a November IPO, later than the October debut many investors expected, with buyers anticipating a valuation near $2 trillion and an offering that could raise up to $100 billion. The Pentagon ruling now gives investors a concrete question: how much government-related business Anthropic can keep under the narrower exclusion and the separate California order. Anthropic is discussing the offering with prospective investors, and Nvidia has considered an anchor investment of up to $10 billion, though those talks remain preliminary.
Some crypto traders have separately placed bets on Anthropic's prospective value through pre-IPO perpetual futures contracts carrying implied valuations around $2 trillion. Those contracts are derivatives, not Anthropic shares — they let traders take a position without owning the underlying asset, and their prices depend partly on assumed share counts rather than confirmed offering terms.
Source: Bitcoin News
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