A leaked letter from Baltic, Polish, and Finnish EU commissioners warns von der Leyen of a "deteriorating security environment" driven by rising Russian airspace violations and drone incursions. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are raising defense spending, and Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are fortifying their borders, but the EU's "drone wall" and Rail Baltica projects remain stalled.
A letter seen by RFE/RL reveals growing concern about Russian aggression in the Baltic states, describing a "deteriorating security environment" amid an "increased frequency of airspace violations and drone incursions." The letter, dated July 30, was sent to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and signed by the three Baltic commissioners, Kaja Kallas, Andrius Kubilius, and Valdis Dombrovskis, plus the Polish and Finnish commissioners.
The warning was one of several sounded over the summer that culminated in CIA Director John Ratcliffe's surprise visit to Moscow on August 25, where he urged the Kremlin against escalating with US allies Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, according to sources briefed on the visit. This follows reporting by the Wall Street Journal on August 6 that cited US intelligence stating Russia may test NATO resolve with a limited incursion as early as this fall. Baltic diplomats told RFE/RL there was additional intelligence during the summer of Russian false flag operations, though no indication of an imminent conventional attack.
Spending rises, but budget fight looms
All three Baltic states have reached or will soon reach NATO's 2035 target of spending 5% of GDP on defense, and the EU has pledged and begun channeling roughly $14 billion of loans for defense and security investment in the region. Estonia is also leaning on cutting-edge technology, with companies such as DefSecIntel Solutions and Wayren supplying battlefield software. Yet negotiations on the EU's next seven-year budget threaten that momentum: the European Commission has proposed a $145 billion pot for security and defense investment, but net contributors including Germany want a smaller overall budget, raising fears defense could be cut. The letter itself calls for $115 billion to bolster the business and investment environment in frontline states.
The drone wall that isn't there
Conspicuously absent from the letter is the "drone wall," a project widely discussed last year to equip the EU's eastern flank with sensors to detect and shoot down drones. As one Baltic official told RFE/RL: "It's easier to talk about the drone wall than to build one." Financial, technical, and legal problems remain unresolved, including who pays and whether the system should be automated or human-overseen.
Rail Baltica, launched in 2015 to link the Baltic states with Poland and the rest of the EU, has also slipped: the original goal of opening this year has been abandoned, and the revised 2030 target is now in doubt amid spiraling costs and repeated design changes. The line matters strategically because it would ease movement of NATO troops through the Suwalki Gap, the narrow corridor between Poland and Lithuania that sits between Belarus and Kaliningrad.
To offset that gap, Lithuania passed a law this year for a military training ground near Kapciamiestis that will host up to 4,000 Lithuanian troops and allied forces, complementing Germany's 45th Armored Brigade north of the gap and a US-led NATO battlegroup in Poland to its south. Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland are also fortifying their borders with Belarus using fences and ditches.
Source: OilPrice.com
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