Barclays says the risks to its 2026 Brent forecast are tilted higher the longer the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz lasts, with its scenarios adding $2 to $10 a barrel to its $96 view. Brent touched $100 this week before easing back.
Barclays sees the risks to its oil price forecasts skewed higher depending on how long the "impasse" over the Strait of Hormuz lasts.
The bank set out three cases. If the current situation runs another one, two or three months, it sees upside risk of $2/bbl, $7/bbl or $10/bbl respectively to its $96/bbl 2026 Brent forecast.
Oil prices spiked to $100 a barrel for the first time since May this week, as renewed hostilities revived investor worries over supply disruptions from a near-halt in trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Prices then eased to just below $100 on Friday.
According to Barclays, the spot price could test $150/bbl in the three-month scenario: "spot price will likely lead the move and could test $150/bbl".
The Strait of Hormuz carried around a fifth of global energy supplies before the conflict began. Earlier this month, Barclays maintained its $96/bbl and $85/bbl Brent forecasts for 2026 and 2027.
A Reuters poll of analysts shows the conflict has deepened forecasts of a global oil deficit in 2026. But recovering Gulf flows, robust U.S. production and weaker Chinese demand are expected to tip the market into oversupply in 2027.
Source: Reuters via Investing.com
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