Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani forecast bitcoin will hit a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and reach $300,000 by the end of 2029, with an accelerated bull case putting the target at $500,000. The bank ties the call to bitcoin's role as a hard asset in the debasement trade and is sticking to its $1 million bitcoin price forecast for 2033.
Bernstein analysts expect bitcoin to recover to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, up from a current price just under $80,000. The team, led by Gautam Chhugani, sees bitcoin peaking at $300,000 by the end of 2029 in its base case, with a bull-case target of $500,000.
The debasement trade behind the call
The analysts argue bitcoin will benefit as a 40-year trend of falling interest rates ends, leaving governments saddled with higher debt-servicing costs and rising sovereign debt levels. Rising bond yields are adding to those pressures. Faced with a choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, Bernstein expects governments to favor the less politically disruptive option, pushing investors toward scarce assets like bitcoin.
Bitcoin remains well positioned for that role, the analysts said, pointing to its committed investor base. The cryptocurrency pulled back 50% from its October 2025 peak, yet 60% of holders haven't moved in the past 12 months. Increased institutional and retail access, along with a favorable regulatory environment, should also drive further interest.
How the price targets are built
Bernstein derives its forecasts from price as a multiple of marginal cost — the cost of the least efficient miner — measured across the 2016-2019 and 2020-2023 cycles. The October 2025 peak of $125,000 sat at 1.4 times marginal cost. The base case reaches its $300,000 2029 peak at a multiple of 1.25, and the $1 million 2033 target at 1.2. In the bull case, that multiple expands to 2, driven by debasement flows into hard assets, lifting bitcoin back to $125,000 by the end of 2026, $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 by 2029.
Strategy's price target trimmed
Bernstein also updated its view on Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, maintaining an outperform rating but cutting its share-price target to $350 from $450. If bitcoin's strength continues and Strategy's preferred shares recover to a face value of $100, the analysts said the company could go "kinetic again with bitcoin purchases," potentially driving a 30% premium for Strategy above the cash value of its bitcoin holdings by June 2027.
Source: MarketWatch
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