Bernstein now expects bitcoin to hit a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 by 2029, driven by what the firm calls a "debasement trade." Analysts kept their Outperform rating on Strategy but cut its price target to $350 from $450.
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani expect bitcoin to reach a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 and around $300,000 at the peak of its next cycle in 2029. The base case, laid out in a note to clients, assumes bitcoin keeps following its historical four-year cycle and values it as a multiple of the marginal cost of production.
A debasement trade replaces the old rate-cut playbook
Chhugani argues the 40-year era of declining interest rates has ended, with sovereign debt levels hitting $40 trillion in the U.S. forcing governments to confront rising debt-servicing costs. In a note to clients on Wednesday, the analysts said: "Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits" As a result, Bernstein expects policymakers will ultimately favor currency debasement over fiscal stress, which could lift demand for scarce assets such as bitcoin. Governments facing that debt load are more likely to tolerate inflation than embrace fiscal austerity, the firm argues, since a fixed-supply asset looks more attractive to long-term portfolios under that scenario.
Holder base and ETF flows back the thesis
Bernstein pointed to around 59% of bitcoin supply that has not moved in the past 12 months. The cryptocurrency has also gained 28% over the past 10 days following a roughly 50% drawdown since its October 2025 peak. Bitcoin ETF outflows during past corrections have remained below 5%, Bernstein noted — evidence, in the firm's view, that institutional holders are not the panic-sellers that historically amplified downturns.
In a more aggressive scenario, Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and peaking near $500,000 in 2029 if institutional capital chases bitcoin more aggressively. The firm's long-term forecast of $1 million by the end of 2033 stays unchanged. Bernstein first set that target in mid-2024.
Strategy's target cut to $350 despite steady rating
Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on bitcoin treasury company Strategy but cut its price target to $350 from $450, citing its updated bitcoin cycle outlook and accelerated equity dilution. The new target represents 176% upside from Strategy's $126.83 closing price on Tuesday. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, or roughly 4% of bitcoin's total supply. Bernstein said its balance sheet provides around 3.9 years of cash coverage for its annual interest and preferred dividend obligations.
Sources: The Block, Crypto Briefing
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