Binance has overtaken CME Group in Bitcoin futures open interest for the first time since late 2023, a reversal tied to the collapse of the cash-and-carry basis trade that once anchored institutional demand on CME. The shift raises questions about whether traditional finance is retreating from crypto derivatives or simply relocating.
Binance overtakes CME in open interest
Binance now holds roughly 148,500 BTC in Bitcoin futures open interest, worth about $9.6 billion. CME has dropped to about 102,840 BTC, or $6.7 billion — its lowest level since February 2024. CME open interest has fallen for five consecutive months, a decline that accelerated as the profitability of a popular arbitrage trade collapsed.
The basis trade that broke
CME's rise had rested largely on the cash-and-carry basis trade: buying spot Bitcoin or a spot ETF while shorting CME futures at a premium to capture the spread. That basis regularly exceeded 15% to 20% through 2024 and the first half of 2025. As Bitcoin's price declined from highs above $120,000 into the $60,000-to-$80,000 range through the first half of 2026, futures premiums compressed alongside it.
By mid-2026, the annualized three-month basis on CME had fallen to roughly 3%, below the 3.8% yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries, erasing the incentive to hold the trade. As a result, most institutional desks unwound their positions rather than continue funding a spread that paid less than risk-free debt.
Capital moves offshore and onshore at once
Much of the exiting capital migrated to offshore perpetual contracts on Binance, Bybit and OKX. Binance alone controls approximately 33% of the centralized perpetual futures market. It captured a 40% share of perpetual futures activity in the first quarter of 2026.
CME, meanwhile, launched 24/7 trading for crypto futures and options on May 29, 2026, the same day the CFTC approved Kalshi's BTCPERP, the first Bitcoin perpetual futures contract on a regulated U.S. exchange. Kalshi generated more than $5.5 billion in cumulative perpetual futures volume within weeks of launch. CME has since sued the CFTC, arguing perpetual futures should be classified as swaps rather than futures.
What the outflow data suggests
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows in the first half of 2026, the first negative half-year since the products launched in January 2024, with much of it tied to basis-trade unwinding rather than a directional retreat from Bitcoin. Notably, CFTC data shows hedge funds have flipped from persistent net short to net long CME positions, suggesting the participants who remain on CME are increasingly taking directional bets rather than harvesting arbitrage yield.
Source: crypto.news
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
