Bitcoin is holding above its $77,269 weekly support as traders push the odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike back above half. The coin's monthly close still faces a resistance band between $81,000 and $86,000, while oil markets swing on fresh US strikes on Iran.
Rate-hike odds jump after Jackson Hole
Bitcoin enters September still pinned below key resistance as markets swing hawkish on Federal Reserve policy. Traders now price a 60% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in September, up from 41.4% a week earlier, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
The shift follows new Fed chair Kevin Warsh's first keynote at last week's Jackson Hole symposium. According to Cointelegraph, Warsh called forward guidance a fixture of Fed messaging for decades that has "overstayed its welcome." He said inflation remains too high. Still, July's Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures readings came in lower than expected.
Labor data could still temper rate hike bets. Friday's nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 50,000 jobs added in August, compared with a loss of 23,000 in June. The Kobeissi Letter flagged 79,000 jobs removed from the 12 months through March in fresh Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions.
Oil rallies as Iran strikes and Venezuela deal collide
Renewed US strikes on Iran sent Brent crude back above $90 per barrel on Monday, while US WTI crude passed $85 per barrel and traded 2.5% higher on the day. Germany's DAX fell 0.7% as European stocks came under pressure.
The strikes followed a US-Venezuela energy deal covering 65 billion barrels of oil reserves worth around $5.4 trillion, according to figures from interim president Delcy Rodriguez cited by CNBC, with a daily output target of 1.5 million barrels.
Bitcoin defends its 50-week trend line
Bitcoin dipped briefly below its 50-week exponential moving average at $77,269 into Sunday's weekly close before defending the level for a second consecutive week.
Monthly gains for BTC/USD hover near 25%, yet buyers have so far failed to reclaim the resistance band between $81,000 and $86,000. Glassnode estimates 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders carries a cost basis between $83,000 and $86,000.
Large wallets keep buying as small holders exit
CryptoQuant data show wallets holding over 100 BTC added about 60,000 BTC between August 1 and 30, while wallets with 1 to 100 BTC sold about 33,000 BTC and wallets under 1 BTC sold about 14,000 BTC.
The platform added that the view of large-holder accumulation would need reassessment should those entities start selling recently acquired supply below $80,000.
Source: Cointelegraph.com News
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