CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju says Bitcoin's bear market has ended after a profitability indicator posted its first positive reading since October, repeating the exact signal it gave before the 2023 recovery. Corroborating data shows ETF inflows and a rapid on-chain score reversal, but analysts caution the confirmation is not guaranteed.
Bitcoin's bear market is over, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who points to an on-chain profitability metric that just replayed the setup seen ahead of the 2023 rebound. In an X post, Ki wrote: "The Bitcoin bear cycle is over", flagging the first positive reading on CryptoQuant's Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator since early October.
Indicator repeats its 2023 setup
The indicator tracks the distance between CryptoQuant's P&L Index — built from the MVRV ratio, net unrealized profit/loss and the spent output profit ratio — and its 365-day moving average. As of Aug. 26, it showed a positive reading of 0.042, placing it back in "bull" territory. Cycle lows came on Feb. 5, when BTC/USD fell to $60,000 and the reading hit -1.244. Ki notes the same crossing called the end of the previous bear market in early 2023.
Corroborating data points in the same direction. Bitcoin recently broke out of a consolidation range between $62,000 and $67,000, surging to approximately $79,400. CryptoQuant's broader Bull Score — which aggregates ten on-chain indicators — surged from 30 to 80 in seven days, the fastest regime flip in a year. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days during the move.
Doubts over demand persist
Not every signal points the same way. Bitcoin has also seen a bullish RSI divergence reminiscent of late 2022, but consensus on the recovery is far from unanimous. Cointelegraph previously reported concerns that a lack of demand could see BTC/USD revert to downside, with multiple liquidity hurdles lined up immediately above spot price.
Trader Rekt Capital argued that the August monthly close would be pivotal for the recovery, pointing to a possible breakout from a downward-sloping resistance line in place since October last year. Analysts, including some within CryptoQuant's own research team, note that a single indicator crossing does not guarantee a sustained bull market — it only raises the odds that $60,000 marked the bottom.
Sources: Cointelegraph, Crypto Briefing
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
