Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, Galaxy's Alex Thorn reported, after the cryptocurrency climbed back above $81,000. The reclaim marks a level that has historically capped bear-market rallies, though Thorn cautions a single weekly close does not confirm a new bull market.
Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above its 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, Galaxy's Alex Thorn reported on September 21, 2026.
The reclaim follows Bitcoin's climb back above $81,000, putting BTC at a historically important technical level, though past cycles offer no guarantee the June low will hold.
A Level That Has Capped Previous Rallies
Thorn has tracked the 50-week moving average as a ceiling during bear markets. In an August research report, he explained that Bitcoin had repeatedly struggled to regain the line during previous downturns. Now, he says the resistance has finally given way. According to Thorn: "BTC CLOSES WEEK ABOVE 50-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE FOR FIRST TIME IN 45 WEEKS".
He added that regaining the level has historically served as strong confirmation that bear market lows are in.
A Qualified Signal
The historical record is notable but comes with a caveat. In four of the five completed bear markets that lost the 50-week average, the first weekly close back above it was followed by no lower low. The exception was the 2021-2022 downturn, when Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the average twice before falling further.
Thorn says the present downturn remains provisional, and a single weekly close above a moving average cannot establish that a new bull market is underway. Fellow market watcher Joe Consorti offered a more bullish read, writing that a close above the average has historically carried a 75% chance of marking cycle lows, rising to 100% if the Covid crash is excluded.
Source: CryptoPotato
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