Bitcoin's nearly 11-month correction may be approaching its end, according to VanEck. The asset manager says 8 of 12 signals in its capitulation framework are currently flashing, while U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs just posted their strongest daily inflows since early May.
VanEck researchers, including Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, found that 8 of 12 signals in its Bitcoin Capitulation Check are currently flashing. All 12 signals have dropped into their capitulation zone at some point over the past three months. The researchers wrote that the readings suggest the market has witnessed what appears to be bitcoin price capitulation and is nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.
Bitcoin holds a tight range
Bitcoin is trading around $64,700 on Tuesday and has stayed range-bound between roughly $58,000 and $66,500 since the start of June. The token remains about 48% below its all-time high of around $126,300 set in October 2025.
ETF demand and holder behavior shift
The renewed demand for U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs has followed. The funds recorded just under $300 million in net inflows on Monday, their strongest single day since May 5. Meanwhile, the amount of bitcoin held for more than a year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, pushing long-term holders' share of circulating supply below 60% for the first time in months.
VanEck sees a shallower trough ahead
VanEck noted that the three previous bitcoin bear market phases took an average of 12.7 months from peak to max drawdown. Bitcoin is now roughly in its 11th month from its early October peak, putting a potential transition to accumulation between September and November based on historical cycles. However, VanEck warned against treating the signals as surefire short-term buy signals, since similar periods of eight to 12 indicators firing have produced average 90-day and 180-day returns below the baseline.
According to VanEck: "We expect a shallower trough this cycle," pointing to spot bitcoin exchange-traded products, a larger institutional holder base, and the absence of widespread crypto lender and exchange failures like FTX, Celsius, and Terra Luna that amplified previous downturns.
Source: The Block
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