Bitcoin spot ETFs have drawn a cumulative $930.39 million since July 14, the first inflow streak to hold for more than five straight days since May. Yet a negative Coinbase Premium Gap points to steady selling pressure, while falling derivatives leverage has lowered the immediate risk of a liquidation cascade.
Bitcoin spot ETFs have pulled in a cumulative $930.39 million since July 14, according to SoSoValue data. It was the first time since May that the inflow streak held for more than five straight days.
Yet the renewed flows have not cleared the caution hanging over the market. Technical indicators flashed a long-term buy signal, yet thin liquidity still challenges any recovery. A breakout without fresh liquidity from stablecoin netflows would not signal a macro bottom for Bitcoin.
Analyst Darkfost said the Coinbase Premium Gap has been negative since May 6, the highest level of pessimism in two years. The gauge measures the price difference between Coinbase Advanced, where institutions trade, and the retail-driven Binance. A negative reading points to steady selling pressure from smart money, even as the market attempted rallies toward $70k over the past month.
Bitcoin has climbed since July 1, when it touched a swing low of $57,800. Those gains have arrived with falling realized volatility.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. compared one-week realized volatility, smoothed by the 30DMA, with price and the 200DMA, and found that since 2016, 92% of trading days carried higher volatility than current levels. The bounce, in other words, has come without sharp price swings.
The open interest to market-capitalization ratio has stayed negative for 21 consecutive days after turning down in early July. That points to derivatives leverage still leaving the market even as Bitcoin recovered, which lowers the immediate risk of a large liquidation-driven move.
Adler said the market sits in a low-activity phase, and that a sustained move beyond $66k-$72k, with further derivatives reduction, would be needed to signal a real recovery.
Source: AMBCrypto
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