Bitcoin is heading into November after a weak October, with ETF outflows, rising rate-hike odds and higher oil prices adding pressure. In November 2025, BTC fell more than 17%, and the market now asks whether that pattern returns.
Bitcoin is down over 3.5% in October, according to CoinGlass data, closing in on last October's 3.95% decline. November now draws attention because BTC fell more than 17% in November 2025, its biggest drop since November 2019.
ETF outflows signal caution
Bitcoin ETFs have recorded $625 million in daily net outflows, their largest single-day outflow since the 25th of June, when withdrawals hit $696 million, AMBCrypto reported. The source calls it a significant change in institutional positioning ahead of November.
Macro data adds to the caution. According to FedWatch, the odds of a rate hike have climbed over 10%, up from 5.5% a day earlier. With U.S. inflation at 3.7% in September, a hike may look less far-fetched, and further gains in the odds could create another macro headwind for Bitcoin.
Oil prices add to the pressure
Rising rate-hike odds may also reflect uncertainty about what lies ahead. Brent crude has jumped more than $117 a barrel for the first time since the 19th of March, as fears of renewed U.S. strikes on Iran fuel supply concerns. That leaves oil $2 short of the yearly high.
AMBCrypto also pointed to odds of U.S. crude topping $110 a barrel by the end of the month, which have surged to a new high of 34%. A continued rise in oil could exacerbate inflationary pressures, which could make a hike difficult to ignore.
CryptoQuant's historical data suggests that rising oil prices have often coincided with weaker BTC momentum. If that trend persists, Bitcoin may see increased selling pressure in the coming months.
Source: AMBCrypto
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
