Bitcoin remains under pressure as capital keeps draining from crypto markets after the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield crossed 5.28%, one of its highest levels since 2007. Analyst Benjamin Cowen expects the 10-year yield to reclaim 5%, a move he says would eventually push the Federal Reserve toward raising rates. U.S.-listed crypto products already logged sharp outflows as investors rotate toward safer assets.
Digital-asset valuations keep struggling to find a floor, with total crypto market capitalization now near $2.17 trillion as capital steadily leaves the space. Bitcoin sits among the assets absorbing that pressure, and the outlook still faces two threats: fragile economic conditions and the chance of fresh Federal Reserve action, either of which could weigh further on prices.
Treasury yields climb toward multi-decade highs
Analyst Benjamin Cowen sees the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield gaining further strength, with a high chance it reclaims the 5% mark in the near term. His call comes as the U.S. 30-year bond yield crossed 5.28% on July 31, one of its highest readings since 2007, a climb that reflects instability tied to inflation.
That move has been building for weeks, drawing investors toward lower-risk assets and pulling capital away from bets such as Bitcoin. Cowen argues that cutting rates does not automatically bring yields down, pointing to 2024-2025 as evidence: the Fed cut rates from 5.5% to 3.75% over that span, yet the 30-year yield remains higher today than when rates sat at 5.5%. He attributes the divergence to the Federal Open Market Committee easing too early, and expects pressure on the long end to keep building — a yield that holds above 5% would eventually push the Fed toward a rate hike that tightens the flow of money into risk assets.
Crypto outflows follow the rotation to safety
A rate increase tends to restrict capital flow because borrowing grows more expensive, which steers investors toward stable assets rather than riskier ones. Because cryptocurrencies count among those riskier bets, tighter conditions mean less capital reaches the space from the U.S. side — a dynamic that can feed a gradual slowdown across the market.
That shift toward safety already showed up on Friday, when U.S.-listed crypto products logged a sharp spike in outflows alongside a visible drop in capital as the 30-year yield hit fresh highs. Bitcoin and Hyperliquid took the biggest hits, with $265.37 million pulled from Bitcoin and $1.83 million from Hyperliquid.
Ethereum and XRP saw thinner withdrawals, at $9.03 million and $7.69 million respectively. A sharper hike would only add to the chances of the bear market dragging on longer.
Stablecoin balances thin as investors hold back
The broader capital drain has stretched on for weeks and feeds straight into current conditions. Stablecoin supply has fallen from $321.82 billion on May 22.
Roughly $14.27 billion has been withdrawn from the market since. Most of what remains sits idle rather than moving into crypto — a sign that investors are holding back from fresh bets on digital assets.
Source: AMBCrypto
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