Bitcoin has slipped below a key cost-basis level as US spot ETFs shed $2.22 billion over eight sessions. Bitfinex analysts say futures leverage keeps building, and they set Nov. 22 as the checkpoint for a recovery.
Bitcoin has fallen as much as 16.8% from its September high, and Bitfinex analysts warn that weak spot buying and stubborn leverage could deepen the correction.
In its Nov. 11 update, Bitfinex Alpha put the main recovery hurdle at $75,717, the average purchase price of coins held for fewer than 155 days. Bitcoin had spent four days below that level after falling to $72,706 following the US inflation report.
ETF outflows outpace corporate buying
US spot ETFs lost $201 million on Nov. 9 and $95 million on Nov. 10, according to Farside Investors. Net withdrawals across the eight sessions beginning Oct. 30 totaled $2.22 billion, which Bitfinex described as the largest such outflow since July 2.
Corporate treasuries are not filling the gap, the analysts said. Despite Strategy buying 1,036 BTC between Nov. 2 and Nov. 8, Bitfinex found that corporate demand was insufficient to offset ETF selling.
Traders keep rebuilding leverage
According to the update, futures open interest rose 3.3% to 701,900 BTC between Nov. 8 and Nov. 11 while Bitcoin's price fell 2.6%. Following the CPI release, open interest fell just 0.2% despite approximately $729 million in liquidations, including $581 million in longs.
Perpetual funding rate stayed near 11% annualized, the analysts said, which indicates that traders continued paying to hold long positions. Bitfinex Alpha wrote: "Such behaviour also leaves the market exposed to further long liquidations."
Nov. 22 separates a quick recovery from a longer reset
The report examined 14 occasions since 2016 when Bitcoin fell below its short-term holder cost basis after spending at least 60 days above it. In 11 cases, the price recovered the level within two weeks. The other three recoveries took between 57 and 114 days.
With the current break dating from Nov. 8, Bitfinex places the two-week checkpoint on Nov. 22. A recovery above $75,717 alongside three consecutive ETF inflow sessions would support its correction scenario.
Source: crypto.news
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