Bitcoin stalled below $80,000 on Wednesday as fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers pushed crude prices higher and the Japanese yen extended its rally against the dollar. Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded their first outflow in over a week, while one analyst pointed to a lower support zone that large holders have viciously defended.
Oil and yen pressure bitcoin
Bitcoin traded below $80,000 on Wednesday, down around 0.4% on the day, after U.S. strikes on Iranian oil tankers soured the mood across risk assets. Brent crude surged above $101 per barrel for the first time since late July. It later traded at $100.74 a barrel, up 2.88% from Tuesday's settlement of $97.92. Bitcoin itself reached $79,701.36 overnight before giving the gain back. It last traded at $78,591.04, down 0.1% over 24 hours.
Carry-trade unwind risk builds
The Japanese yen kept trading around 153 per dollar, its highest level since February. Citing Bloomberg data, Barchart flagged yen short positioning above 5 trillion yen, a record for early September. Saxo strategist Charu Chanana said the carry trade looks vulnerable because the unwind is happening before the Bank of Japan has even delivered its expected interest rate hike, which is anticipated at a quarter point at its next meeting on Sept. 28.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has hinted at further yen intervention, doubled down this week. According to the Financial Times, quoted by Cointelegraph: "I am the house now." U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs also recorded $46.6 million of net outflows on Tuesday, their first negative session since Sept. 1.
Whales defend the $58,000-$63,000 zone
Analyst Jamie Coutts said large holders had viciously defended Bitcoin's $58,000-$63,000 range with unusually high volume on both exchange charts and onchain spot data, calling it Bitcoin's current support level and line in the sand. He warned a break below would be damaging given how much capital rotated in at that range, while also pointing to Bitcoin's relative strength against gold and tech stocks as a bullish setup on weekly charts.
Coutts added that smart money has been building bitcoin positions over the past quarter, visible in recent 13F filings. He said ETF inflows are now tracking at roughly 300% of new supply.
Sources: Cointelegraph, The Defiant, Coinpedia
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