Bitcoin declined approximately 9.93% last week as markets repriced Federal Reserve tightening and pushed the Dollar Index to a new 2026 high. ActionForex attributes the move to interest rate expectations rather than a broad flight from risk, since US equities rose. Technical levels now point to a possible retest of the 57,736 low.
Bitcoin declined approximately 9.93% on its weekly chart, trading around 67,300 during Saturday's snapshot. Gold fell 4.56% over the same week, as higher yields and a stronger Dollar weighed on assets that offer no conventional interest income.
Markets entered the week pricing roughly two additional quarter-point Fed hikes through 2027, but ended it anticipating nearly four.
Fed repricing, not risk aversion, drove the selloff
The shift followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller's warning that larger increases might be necessary, and then an October CPI report that met his threshold for considering a 50bps move. Other policymakers reinforced the need for further tightening, although they differed over its pace and offered no clear endorsement of the full path markets had priced.
Equities rose and volatility declined during the same period. ActionForex therefore suggests the dominant force was a repricing of interest rate expectations rather than a broad flight from risk. It also cautions that the week's correlation does not establish that monetary policy expectations caused every movement in either asset.
Bitcoin does not follow exactly the same mechanism as gold. Its valuation is also sensitive to market liquidity, leverage, positioning and cryptocurrency-specific developments.
Bitcoin breaks a key retracement level
Bitcoin's decline from 87,354 broke below the 61.8% retracement of the 57,736–87,354 rebound at approximately 69,050. The move is raising the chance that the longer-term downtrend from the 2025 peak at 126,230 is resuming.
The near-term outlook will stay bearish as long as 74,704 resistance holds, with the next target a retest of the 57,736 low. Daily RSI has fallen into oversold territory, which raises the possibility of temporary rebounds, though that alone does not establish that the decline has ended.
A firm break below 57,736 would strengthen the case for long-term bearish continuation, targeting approximately 45,025.
Source: ActionForex
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