Bitcoin dropped below its 50-week simple moving average, reversing a September signal that several analysts read as the start of a new bull run. Large spot ETF outflows have highlighted weak institutional demand, and sustained dollar strength makes crypto less attractive, while Wintermute and LMAX Group analysts point to the levels and catalysts they are watching.
Bitcoin fell below its 50-week simple moving average, reversing a September signal that had convinced analysts a new bull run had begun. The price recently changed hands below $73,400, a discount to the 50-week average of $75,153.
Technical analysts often take a failed breakout like this to represent renewed seller dominance in the market. In September, prices convincingly topped the 50-week average, and Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn was among the analysts who called it evidence of a new bull run.
September's bullish signal is now invalidated
Thorn's analysis showed that in four of the five previously completed bear markets, the first weekly close above the 50-week SMA led to bull runs. The exception was the 2021-22 cycle, when two brief reclaims were followed by a deeper selloff.
For now, that bullish view stands invalidated. The move comes alongside large outflows from spot ETFs that recently highlighted weak institutional demand.
Wintermute, a market maker, said it stays cautious while BTC sits under its 50-week average. The firm named $68k as the next level down and said reclaiming $80k would change that view.
Dollar strength makes crypto less attractive
The Dollar Index briefly topped 103, the highest since March 2025. Sustained dollar strength makes bitcoin and the wider crypto market less attractive, according to CoinDesk.
However, some observers remain optimistic and say the dollar's rally may be ending, with markets seeing a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase as pretty much baked in for December. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said much of that hawkishness is already reflected in prices, which tilts the balance of risk toward profit-taking on dollar longs.
Kruger named the Fed commentary and Friday's U.S. producer price inflation report as the next tests for that view. He also called the conflict with Iran a swing factor through the price of oil, where renewed supply pressure could keep inflation concerns elevated.
Source: CoinDesk
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