Bitcoin fell to under $67,000 on Saturday, down from $81,000 10 days earlier. DWF Labs' Martin Lee expects a drop to $60,000 if weekly support at $68,000 fails, while bitcoin treasury firm Nakamoto reports debt above its market cap.
Bitcoin traded at $81,000 10 days ago, then crashed below $68,000 on Friday morning for the first time in nearly three months. On Saturday, it fell further to under $67,000.
CryptoPotato asked two market experts whether they anticipate an immediate bounce or more pain ahead.
DWF Labs points to $68,000 as key support
Martin Lee, Market Insights Lead at DWF Labs, highlighted the 50-week moving average near $75,000, which bitcoin is on track to close beneath only eight weeks after reclaiming it. Historically, moves back above that line have often preceded sustained rallies, while losing it has opened the door for further downside.
This time, however, bitcoin never moved particularly far above the 50-week average, with a brief top at $87,000 in September. That left it relatively close to the 200-week moving average around $68,000, which Lee said has repeatedly served as an important long-term floor.
Lee contrasted the setup with November 2025, when bitcoin lost the 50-week average near $100,000 and eventually plunged toward $60,000 before reaching comparable long-term support.
Derivatives flows lean bearish
The bullish factors are minimal. Current on-chain data shows that 52.2% of newly opened crypto futures and perpetual positions within the past 24 hours are shorts, against 47.8% longs. New bitcoin options activity was similarly tilted bearish, with puts accounting for 53% of flows.
If the $68,000 support fails on the weekly scale, as it did on Friday, Lee expects the next major leg down to take bitcoin to $60,000.
Nakamoto's debt exceeds its market cap
The slide is also pressuring bitcoin treasury companies. Nakamoto owes Kraken $165 million in USDT, secured by its bitcoin holdings, while its market capitalization stands at nearly $92 million, according to Bitcoin News.
Under an amended agreement, 105 million USDT of the loan matures on June 30, 2027, and 60 million USDT matures on December 4, 2027. Bitcoin News reports that 3,030 of Nakamoto's 4283 BTC are already pledged as collateral, leaving 1,253 BTC to add.
If BTC keeps falling, Nakamoto will have to repay part of the loan or pledge more bitcoin.
Sources: CryptoPotato, Bitcoin News
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