Bitcoin edged higher on Friday but stayed on track for its first weekly loss in three weeks after a hotter-than-expected August inflation report pushed Federal Reserve rate-hike odds sharply higher. A pullback in oil prices lifted broader risk sentiment, while a new CoinShares note described an unusual policy mix for the token.
Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $77,397.9 by 17:18 ET Friday. Yet the token was down more than 3% for the week and on pace to snap a three-week winning streak. The move came as investors weighed rising Fed rate hike bets tied to persistent inflation pressure.
Oil slide lifts risk appetite
Equities and crypto caught a bid Friday as Brent crude snapped a five-day winning streak. The drop followed a Financial Times report that Gulf foreign ministers plan to meet their Iranian counterpart on Monday in Salalah, Oman, to discuss managing commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran and Oman signaled in August they were negotiating a shipping deal, though the U.S. has opposed talks with Iran. Despite Friday's dip, oil was still headed for a roughly 20% surge over two weeks amid renewed U.S.-Iran military tension.
Hot CPI print pushes rate-hike odds higher
Headline and core CPI both ticked up 0.4% and 0.3% month over month in August, topping consensus estimates of 0.4% and 0.2% and accelerating from July's 0.1% and 0.2%. Annual headline inflation held at 3.4%, while core eased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
The data pushed the odds of a quarter-point Fed hike next week to nearly 87%, from about 69% before the report, according to the CME FedWatch tool. According to Bitget analyst Lewis Huang: "the print provides less of a directional catalyst from rates."
CoinShares sees an unusual mix for bitcoin
Separately, CoinShares' head of research, James Butterfill, said in a Friday note that firmer-than-expected core inflation could cap bitcoin below $80,000 in the near term. But he argued the longer-term setup may be improving: the U.S. Treasury's bond buyback programme has so far failed to bring down long-end yields, a dynamic that could feed the debasement trade that has supported both bitcoin and gold.
If yields stay elevated, Butterfill said, pressure would build on Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to escalate to a larger buying programme. Bitcoin rallied sharply in August after Bessent announced plans to double the size of long-dated bond buybacks.
Altcoins mixed for the week
Ether added 3.4% for the week. XRP shed 3% over the same span. Solana climbed 0.2% for the week.
BNB rose 0.7%. Cardano fell 3.5% over the week.
Dogecoin slipped 0.3%. $TRUMP dropped 13% over the same span.
Sources: Cryptocurrency News, Bitcoin Magazine
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