Large buyers defended bitcoin at $80,000 on Thursday, but Glassnode's data shows the bids beneath that level are thinning. U.S. wholesale inflation of 6.3% and ETF outflows set the backdrop, while Polymarket gives bitcoin a 53.5% chance of closing above $82,000 on Oct. 16.
Large bids at $80,000 on Binance were filled on Oct. 15 as bitcoin dipped to $79,800. Glassnode, which posted a heatmap of resting orders, said: "The large bids that sat at $80k for the last week were filled". New large bids followed, it said, and pushed the price up.
Bitcoin then climbed to an intraday high of $82,634 between 15:00 and 18:00 UTC, and a new resting bid formed near $82,000 in the evening.
Why Glassnode sees support eroding
When Glassnode calls support weakening, it means the stack of buy orders below $80,000 is smaller than before the refill. The next test of that level would therefore meet less resistance than Thursday's did, according to Bitcoin.com News.
Leverage points the same way. About $930 million in leveraged positions were wiped out in the dip, $780 million of them longs. On the bounce, $53 million in shorts were liquidated. That short squeeze helped bitcoin back above $82,000, but squeezes give a one-time lift because they don't produce sustained buying.
Inflation and ETF outflows pressure the market
U.S. wholesale inflation came in at 6.3% on Thursday, a day after consumer prices hit a four-month high. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack warned that more aggressive action may be needed to fight rising inflation. Traders were watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks on Friday for any hint of a hike.
Meanwhile, U.S. spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds lost $391 million in a single session as a one-day rebound faded.
What prediction markets price next
On Polymarket's daily bitcoin market for Oct. 16, the odds early Friday stood at 94.8% for a close above $80,000, 53.5% above $82,000 and 5.25% above $84,000.
Longer-dated bets are gloomier. Polymarket's 2026 price market gives bitcoin a 37.5% chance of reaching $95,000 by Dec. 31 and a 23.5% chance of $100,000, down from 27% on Monday. The same market puts a dip to $70,000 at 39%.
Not everyone is nervous. Onchain analyst Willy Woo argued that bitcoin should be able to remain resilient against a stock pullback because it has already retraced 50% while equities kept setting highs.
Source: Bitcoin News
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