Bitcoin is holding above $77,100 even as traders raise the odds of a September rate hike. Continued spot ETF inflows appear to be offsetting the pressure from a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, according to Bitfinex Alpha.
Bitcoin is holding above $77,100 as fresh ETF demand meets shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy. The token closed above $80,000 on August 27 for the first time since May, ending the session at $80,256 after briefly touching $81,500. It then fell to $76,857 following Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks, which pushed markets to reassess the rate outlook.
Rate Fears Test the August Breakout
The pullback came as markets raised the implied probability of a September rate increase from the mid-30% range to about 60%. Warsh also stressed the Fed's 2% inflation target and suggested monetary policy may not yet be restrictive enough.
Despite the shift, Bitcoin showed some resilience. It closed Friday only about 3% lower and stayed above its previous range highs through the weekend. Bitfinex identified $77,100 as a key volume-node support level that helped define the token's August breakout.
ETF Demand Keeps Offsetting the Pressure
Continued exchange-traded fund demand appears to be cushioning that resilience. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $924.5 million in net inflows last week, even as $202 million left the products on Friday. The funds had pulled in $3.04 billion over the previous nine sessions, pointing to steady demand despite the changing rate expectations.
Stablecoin liquidity also matters to the broader market because it can supply capital for digital assets. However, Bitfinex's report points more directly to ETF demand as a key driver behind Bitcoin's current liquidity conditions.
Derivatives Positioning Stays Contained
Bitcoin's derivatives market has remained relatively controlled through the rally, the report noted. Perpetual futures open interest reached $55.6 billion, about 20% above the start of August, while funding rates and futures basis stayed contained.
Source: CryptoPotato
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