Bitcoin trades near $83,978, sitting about 7% above a cluster of weekly moving averages between $77.8K and $78.6K. The cluster has already survived one retest, but a weekly close back under $78,000 would put the breakout in doubt.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $83,978 at 09:00 UTC on Saturday, September 26, with its weekly chart looking markedly different than it did a month earlier. Price has climbed on top of a stack of moving averages that had capped it for most of the year.
A Ribbon That Hasn't Flipped Yet
Weekly EMAs on Binance BTCUSDT candles show the 50, 55 and 100-week lines bunched between $77.8K and $78.6K, with the 21-week near $73.7K. The 8-week line, near $77K, hasn't crossed above the slower averages yet. On TradingView's weekly chart, the moving-average ribbon slopes down through winter and spring before flattening as candles push through it in August; the week of August 17 did the heavy lifting, with Bitcoin opening near $62,900 and closing at $77,734.
The cluster has already been tested once. The week of September 7 closed at $76,842, under the band, before the following week closed at $81,178 — a retest that has held so far. Chart watchers still want the faster averages to cross above the slower ones before calling the bear phase over, and that cross hasn't happened.
Price now sits about 7% above the band, while Bitcoin's median daily range has been 2.5% over the last 30 days and its 14-day ATR is close to $2,459. A slide back to the top of the cluster would take a bit over two average daily swings.
Some traders expect a return to the band before any longer run higher; others expect price to keep climbing. A weekly close back under $78,000 would put the whole breakout in doubt.
Bitget Breach Fails to Dent Price
Bitget said unauthorized transfers began from its hot wallets on September 24, with the amount first put at $351.6 million and later raised to $387.5 million. Bitcoin's 24-hour change has stayed roughly flat at -0.1%, with no sign the breach dragged the price lower.
Levels That Decide the Next Leg
A one-hour close above $84,296.60 — today's high so far — would open the door to $85,224 and then $87,385.10, September's high; a one-hour close back under $83,875 would take that scenario off the table. On the downside, a one-hour close below $83,750 brings $83,130.10 into play, then $82,832, an idea that a one-hour close back above $84,168.75 would cancel.
Bitcoin remains above a rising 100-day average near $69,500, roughly 3.9% under its 20-day high.
Source: Live Bitcoin News
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