Bitcoin held around $65,000 on Monday while AI-linked tech stocks came under pressure, and analysts say this week’s Federal Reserve decision could determine its next move. LMAX Group puts the breakout level at $67,300; Nansen’s base case is a pullback toward $52,000-$58,000.
Bitcoin held around $65,000, up 4% since Friday, while ether reached its strongest price in nearly two months. The crypto market stayed somewhat resilient even as AI-linked tech stocks came under pressure.
Nvidia’s 4.8% decline led AI-favorites lower, even as the overall Nasdaq was about flat thanks to gains in Apple, Microsoft and Google. That resilience, however, is about to face its biggest test: the Fed’s policy decision, key U.S. inflation data and earnings from several technology giants all land this week.
Kruger puts the breakout level at $67,300
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said bitcoin needs to clear $67,300 to break out of the multi-week consolidation that has capped prices since June. A move above that level could signal the next leg higher, while ether faces a similar test at $2,000.
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, also pointed to ether’s recent outperformance relative to bitcoin as a bullish signal for crypto markets. The ETH-BTC ratio climbed to a three-month high on Monday.
Nansen sees a rebound without buyers
Not everyone is convinced. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said the recent rebound lacks the buying conviction typically seen before sustained rallies. According to CoinDesk, Sondergaard described a market holding range without strong buyers: “The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout”.
His base case remains a pullback toward $52,000-$58,000 unless market conditions improve. Nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, yet open interest in bitcoin futures has fallen even as prices edged higher, suggesting traders are reducing exposure rather than adding fresh bullish bets.
Fed, PCE and a $13-14 billion options expiry
Sondergaard said the Fed’s rate decision and its communication will likely set the tone for risk assets on Wednesday. Investors will also watch Thursday’s core PCE inflation report, Q2 GDP data and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Friday then brings a roughly $13-14 billion bitcoin and ether options expiry.
For Nansen to turn more constructive, the firm wants stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, sustained spot bitcoin ETF buying and signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss. Until then, Sondergaard views the recent recovery as a positioning bounce rather than the start of a broader uptrend.
Source: CoinDesk
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