Bitcoin held near $64,830 on Thursday as hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eased inflation worries and lifted risk appetite. Broader crypto sentiment stayed lukewarm after sharp losses earlier this year, even as spot Bitcoin ETF inflows picked up in August and Strategy, Coinbase and Circle posted disappointing earnings.
Bitcoin held near $64,830 on Thursday, up 0.8% over 24 hours and 1.3% on the week, trading inside a narrow band. Ether rose 2.1%, but most other majors barely moved, leaving the market in wait-and-see mode rather than rally mode.
Hormuz optimism drives the macro bid
The bid under bitcoin is coming from macro hopes rather than fresh crypto demand. President Donald Trump pointed to strong employment, better manufacturing data and cooling inflation, while also raising the possibility of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Separately, Iran signaled it was close to reaching an agreement with Oman on the strait. Trump said talks with Iran were going well, though Tehran largely denied that any direct negotiations with the U.S. had taken place.
A reopening would likely pressure oil lower, easing inflation worries and giving Treasury yields and the dollar room to fall. Still, the trade depends on several steps lining up — lower oil has to feed into lower inflation expectations, and those have to pull down real yields and the dollar. Bitcoin's roughly 63% correlation with the S&P 500 also means equity sentiment may matter more than crypto-native flows in the near term.
Oil has little direct bearing on crypto, but shapes sentiment
Physical oil flows have little actual bearing on Bitcoin and crypto, though they greatly affect market sentiment, which in turn moves speculative assets. Bitcoin has largely dithered since the onset of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran in late February, remaining pinned in a tight trading range around $60,000, and is still trading nearly 50% off its October record high.
Spot ETF inflows pick up in August
Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows gained momentum in early August. They reached $626 million so far this month, data from SoSoValue showed. That is up sharply from a $172.4 million inflow in July. It remains to be seen whether the pace will hold, especially since Bitcoin ETFs lost nearly $7 billion in outflows in May and June.
Middling earnings across the sector also continued to trickle in. Strategy and Coinbase both posted disappointing results last week. Circle fell overnight after its second-quarter revenue missed expectations.
The levels to watch now are real yields and the dollar. If both fall alongside oil, bitcoin has a cleaner path above the top of its recent range. But if yields stay firm, the macro case remains theoretical, and bitcoin likely stays pinned near $65,000.
Sources: CoinDesk, Investing.com
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