Bitcoin held near $77,900 on Aug. 31 even as fresh U.S.-Iran fighting sent oil prices higher and pressured global equities. The muted crypto reaction contrasts with a hawkish Federal Reserve stance that has lifted September rate-hike odds, with the Sept. 4 jobs report next in focus.
Bitcoin steady as oil jumps past $90
Bitcoin traded down approximately 0.4% over 24 hours, moving between $77,162 and $79,343, after a U.S. official said American forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island. The official said Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had been preparing rockets carrying sea mines for deployment in the Strait of Hormuz. According to crypto.news, Iran said the attack killed and wounded soldiers and civilians, and the Revolutionary Guards promised a "response and punishment".
Brent crude climbed approximately 2.7% to $90.51 per barrel during Monday's Asian session on renewed concern over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Nasdaq 100 futures fell between 0.5% and 0.7%, and gold slipped approximately 0.8% to around $4,418 per ounce. Bitcoin's stability does not confirm it has become a geopolitical hedge, but the latest escalation did not trigger the kind of immediate sell-off seen in some earlier risk events.
Wedge breakout stalls near resistance
On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin rallied from around $63,000 on Aug. 14 to a peak near $81,500 resistance on Aug. 28, forming an ascending wedge that broke below its lower boundary on elevated volume. That decline has yet to turn into a sustained move, with price trading between the Point of Control at $78,900 and the lower profile boundary at $78,100.
A drop below the profile could open the round-number $77,000 level, while a break above the $80,000 upper boundary would reopen the path toward $81,500. The RSI plus moving-average readings sit at 50, 48 and 55, all in neutral territory.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin traded near $78,084, above the Bollinger Bands' $72,471 midpoint but below the $86,255 upper band, a level tracked through the Bollinger Bands framework. The RSI stood at 69.91, just under overbought territory.
Fed hawkishness lifts rate-hike odds
Bitcoin gained approximately 23% during August, outperforming reported monthly advances of 9% for gold and 4% for the Nasdaq. The rally was aided by U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which pulled in approximately $2.8 billion across eight consecutive inflow sessions. That streak broke, however, with an estimated $201.9 million in net outflows on Aug. 28.
The escalation followed a hawkish message from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Aug. 28, where he reaffirmed the Fed's 2% core PCE inflation target. Fed funds futures now place the odds of a September rate hike near 57% to 60%, up from about 35% before his remarks. The August employment report, due Sept. 4, is the next scheduled catalyst for both Bitcoin and broader markets.
Sources: crypto.news, ActionForex
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