Bitcoin has not moved more than 6% over the past month and trades around $81,735 as investors wait for the Federal Reserve's October 28 rate decision. One analyst calls the quiet a constructive sign for a bull market, while another says it is neither good nor bad.
Bitcoin has not moved more than 6% over the past month and sits at around $81,735, down 1.2% on the day. Every top five cryptocurrency has also failed to move more than 2% over the past week. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index stands at a neutral 47.
Analysts read the quiet market differently
Some analysts see the lull as a positive. According to Jake Koch-Gallup, senior research analyst at Blockworks: "usually a good sign, and one reason is that it doesn't last". He added that similar low-volatility stretches have led to 30% price swings in either direction within a few months.
André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, described the quiet period as a constructive sign and said long stretches of uneventful trading are a typical early sign of a bull market. Carlos Guzman of crypto trading firm GSR, however, said a boring market is neither good nor bad. He attributed the standstill to risk-off sentiment across global markets.
The Fed decision sets the next move
Dragosch said Bitcoin is in a wait-and-see mode. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and Koch-Gallup said nobody wants to make a big bet until the October 28 decision.
Koch-Gallup named three catalysts in the next two weeks: the Fed decision, an options expiry on October 30 of $11.69 billion worth of Bitcoin, and the U.S. midterms on November 3. If the Fed holds rates and ETF inflows continue, he expects an upward break. If the Fed hikes again, the $75,000 to $77,000 floor comes back into play.
Buyers have not disappeared. Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000 last week but quickly found buyers, according to Guzman, and BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF saw an inflow of $665.20 million on Monday, according to CoinGlass data. Guzman said buying has not been consistent enough to drive a sustained rally.
Source: Decrypt
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