Bitcoin traded just above $86,000 early Tuesday as traders watched the $84,000 level that FxPro says could open the door to $80,000. Chart analysts at Crypto Daily see a different setup, pointing to a possible breakout toward $89,250 and beyond. Separately, Arthur Hayes argued that bitcoin ETF inflows now matter more to the price than Michael Saylor's buying.
A drop below $84,000 looms large
Bitcoin traded just above $86,000 early Tuesday, down 0.2% over 24 hours, after pushing above $87,000 on Monday and running into heavy selling for the third time since Sept. 23. According to FxPro, bitcoin briefly slid to $85,200 before European trading opened, still near the top of its two-week range.
The firm said a break below $84,000 would signal a victory for the bears, and a further fall through the recent low near $83,000 could send bitcoin to $80,000 fairly quickly. U.S. Treasury yields fell from their highest since 2002 as oil slipped below $100 a barrel, easing some pressure on risk assets. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting are due Wednesday.
Charts point to a possible breakout
Crypto Daily reads the setup differently. The U.S. 10-year yield hit a 24-year high before pulling back on Monday, yet bitcoin held the $85,000 horizontal support level, about $1,000 from breaking above a parallel channel's upper trendline. An ascending triangle is forming on the four-hour chart, a setup the outlet calls bullish as long as price holds above the rising trendline.
If a breakout plays out, the first resistance sits at $89,250, with $94,300 as a tougher target and $97,880 marking the point that would end the bear market. Stochastic RSI and RSI readings on the daily chart are both still pointing up, which the outlet says favors the bulls for now.
Hayes says ETFs, not Saylor, drive the price
Arthur Hayes, Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom chief, told crypto host Crypto Wendy O that Strategy's edge has faded now that spot ETFs exist: "I think Michael Saylor had his time in the sun." He added that once investors have other ways to access crypto, there is less reason to hold the stock instead.
Hayes said he now watches ETF inflows instead, after U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs added $241 million last week. He also flagged Strategy's mNAV-linked stock sales and noted Metaplanet sold 10,000 BTC in Q3 to prove its treasury was liquid. Asked whether bitcoin reaches $1 million, Hayes affirmed it without giving a date; bitcoin currently sits near $85,300, about 32% below the $126,199 record set exactly a year earlier.
Sources: CoinDesk, Crypto Daily, Bitcoin.com
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