Bitcoin has held near $82,500 since last Wednesday as US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz cap its upside, even after Fed's John Williams struck a dovish tone on rates. Traders now turn to Wednesday's Core PCE inflation print and a retreating 10-year Treasury yield for the next directional cue.
Bitcoin has consolidated near $82,500 since last Wednesday, as talks between the US and Iran over reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep a lid on further gains. The two sides now disagree mainly over the sequencing and implementation of Tehran's proposal, rather than its substance.
Fed's John Williams added some support yesterday, saying there was no urgency to raise rates further after September's hike and that another increase would likely be appropriate only if the economy keeps performing as expected. His comments pushed the odds of an October rate hike from about 70% down to roughly 45%.
Bitcoin Holds the 82,500 Support Zone
On the daily chart, bitcoin is consolidating around the 82,500 level, a zone that flipped from resistance to support. Buyers have a better risk-to-reward setup near the upward trendline, while sellers need a break lower to extend the drop toward the 76,000 support.
On the 4-hour chart, the range narrows between the 82,500 support and the 85,000 resistance, with buyers stepping in near support to target a rally toward 90,000.
Wednesday's PCE Print Is the Next Catalyst
Bitcoin has also kept to a $83,000-to-$87,000 range over the past week, according to Crypto Daily. Wednesday's Core PCE inflation reading, the gauge the Fed relies on most, could set the next move: a hotter-than-expected print could push bond yields and the dollar higher, while a cooler reading would likely spark a rally in stocks.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.293%, a 19-year high, last week, though it may be retreating toward 5%, with support at 5.2% seen as the level to watch.
Other Catalysts on Deck
Traders also have the US ADP employment report due alongside PCE data on Wednesday, followed by the ISM manufacturing PMI and jobless claims figures Thursday, and the non-farm payrolls report Friday. Even so, the focus stays on US-Iran developments, which will likely decide whether Bitcoin breaks out of its range or extends the stalemate.
Sources: Investinglive, Crypto Daily
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