Bitcoin has climbed toward $65,000 after softer-than-expected June U.S. inflation data, but on-chain signals show two investor groups selling into the rise. Long-term holders are realizing losses while short-term holders take profit, capping the advance as skeptics question whether the bounce can last.
Two distinct groups of bitcoin investors are selling into the rise toward $65,000, potentially slowing the ascent even as macro tailwinds lift the price. Their simultaneous selling is likely creating overhead supply exactly as the market tries to break higher.
Two holder groups sell into strength
The first group is long-term holders, which Glassnode defines as wallets that tend to hold for at least five months. Those who bought near last year's highs are capitulating — using the bounce to sell at a loss rather than hold through deeper drawdowns, which signifies a lack of confidence in the sustainability of the latest price rise.
Short-term holders point the same way. Having scooped up coins near the recent lows, they are now realizing profits at a pace exceeding $4 million per day, a selling wave reminiscent of May, when BTC briefly rose to its 200-day average above $82,000.
Soft inflation data drove the bounce
BTC has bounced this week to nearly $65,000 from $61,500, with most gains coming on Tuesday after U.S. consumer price inflation came in softer than expected. Headline CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year in June, missing the 3.8% consensus forecast, while core CPI came in at 2.6% YoY.
June's producer price index also came in lower than expected. Both reports eased fears of Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. That sent the dollar index down half a percent to 100.48 this week as Treasury yields dropped.
Analysts question whether it holds
Some observers doubt the bounce can last, arguing that a collapse in oil prices mainly drove the slower June cost-of-living growth and that oil's recent rebound makes the data obsolete. According to CoinDesk, Bitget chief analyst Ryan Lee said the CPI print was driven by a 10% drop in gasoline through June that had already reversed before the report was published.
Wintermute OTC trader Jasper De Maere also called for caution, noting the Fear & Greed Index only moved from 22 to 25, still in Extreme Fear territory. One soft print against an active military escalation, he warned, is not a durable shift in risk appetite.
Source: CoinDesk
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